Increasing Use of Conservative Management of Low-Risk Prostate Cancer in the Veterans Affairs System from 2012 to 2021

Abstract

Conservative management (CM), including either active surveillance or watchful waiting, is the preferred management strategy for men with low-risk prostate cancer. We sought to describe contemporary trends in CM among men with localized prostate cancer across the equal-access Veterans Affairs (VA) system. Using VA tumor registry data, we identified all men with a new diagnosis of biopsy-proven, clinically node-negative, non-metastatic prostatic adenocarcinoma from 2012 to 2021, excluding men with missing National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group. We quantified the yearly proportion of patients with low and favorable intermediate-risk (FIR) prostate cancer undergoing conservative management and examined age-specific rates. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent clinical predictors of CM among men with low-risk and FIR disease. The cohort included 86,415 patients with localized prostate cancer, of whom 20,290 (23.5%) had low risk and 25,447 (29.5%) had FIR disease. The proportion of men diagnosed with low-risk disease decreased from 27.7% in 2012 to 20.1% in 2021. The proportion of men with localized prostate cancer who were 70 years or older at diagnosis increased from 19.5% in 2012 to 46.4% in 2021, with similar increases seen across risk groups. The proportion of men with low-risk disease undergoing CM increased from 63.1% in 2012 to 86.6% in 2021. CM rates in 2021 among low-risk patients were largely consistent across age groups (50-59: 85.1%; 60-69: 87.4%; 70+: 86.3%). For FIR patients, CM rates increased among the subset with Gleason 6 disease (49.5% in 2012 to 80.7% in 2021). In multivariable models, independent predictors of CM in low-risk patients included older age, more recent year, lower PSA at diagnosis, North Atlantic or Pacific region, and presence of another cancer at diagnosis; similar predictors were found in FIR patients. Self-reported race (Black, White, or Other) was not associated with CM. While there was wide geographic variation in CM rates among low-risk patients early in the study period (2012-2014: 56.1% in Southeast region vs 74.1% in Pacific), these disparities resolved in recent years (2019-2021: 83.2% in Southeast vs 83.8% in Pacific). Rates of conservative management for localized prostate cancer increased dramatically over time in the VA, with over 85% of low-risk patients managed conservatively in 2021. Recent years showed no differences in CM rates by self-reported race, geographic region, or age group. Despite this progress, we observed a concomitant increase in the proportion of men 70 years or older diagnosed with localized prostate cancer, including low risk disease. This raises a need to consider strategies to reduce the diagnosis of low-risk disease in elderly Veterans.