Increasing risks for emerging infectious diseases within a rapidly changing High Asia

Charudutt Mishra,Gustaf Samelius,Munib Khanyari,Prashanth Nuggehalli Srinivas,Örjan Johansson,Matthew Low,Carol Esson,Suri Venkatachalam

doi:10.1007/s13280-021-01599-7

Abstract

The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia, inhabited by a relatively sparse human population, a high density of livestock, and wildlife such as the iconic snow leopard Panthera uncia, are usually considered low risk for disease outbreaks. However, based on current knowledge about drivers of disease emergence, we show that High Asia is rapidly developing conditions that favor increased emergence of infectious diseases and zoonoses. This is because of the existing prevalence of potentially serious pathogens in the system; intensifying environmental degradation; rapid changes in local ecological, socio-ecological, and socio-economic factors; and global risk intensifiers such as climate change and globalization. To better understand and manage the risks posed by diseases to humans, livestock, and wildlife, there is an urgent need for establishing a disease surveillance system and improving human and animal health care. Public health must be integrated with conservation programs, more ecologically sustainable development efforts and long-term disease surveillance.

Highlights

The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia, inhabited by a relatively sparse human population, a high density of livestock, and wildlife such as the iconic snow leopard Panthera uncia, are usually considered low risk for disease outbreaks
We collate evidence for the prevalence of various pathogens in this region and show how multiple ecological, socio-ecological, and socio-economic factors in High Asia may be interacting with climate change and globalization to create higher risk conditions for EIDs and zoonotic outbreaks compared to what current forecast modeling suggests (Fig. 3)
The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia have so far been considered at low risk of disease emergence, and relatively neglected from the perspective of disease research, and their potential implications for human health and biodiversity conservation (Jones et al 2008; Allen et al 2017)

Summary

Introduction

The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia, inhabited by a relatively sparse human population, a high density of livestock, and wildlife such as the iconic snow leopard Panthera uncia, are usually considered low risk for disease outbreaks. We put forward the case that High Asia is rapidly developing conditions for increased risk of disease outbreaks in both human and animal populations.

Results

Conclusion