Increasing Risk of Spring Frost Occurrence during the Cherry Tree Flowering in Times of Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change affects the agroecological conditions and persistence of cherry tree flowering. Detailed evaluation of minimum air temperature and occurrence of synoptic events occurrence during spring frosts within the cherry tree flowering in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) is missing. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the above-mentioned variables during the cherry tree flowering in different parts of the country from 1924 to 2012. Our question was how the frequency of frost days occurrence changed during the cherry tree flowering. A trend analysis was conducted with the Mann-Kendall test. The onset of the beginning of flowering and end of flowering shifted to an earlier date per the whole examined period (up to −13.9 and −8.1 days) and the period of flowering extended (up to 4.1 days). The shifts were more pronounced at higher elevations. During the period of the cherry tree flowering, the trend in change of the number of frost days was negative at the lowland station (−0.3 day) and positive at the highland station (+1.2 day). At all stations, “Ap3” synoptic event (anticyclone) occurrence during cherry tree flowering on days with the highest spring frost risk (Tmin at 2 m < −1.1 °C) prevailed. The positive trend of frost-day occurrence and the negative trend of minimum air temperature in cherry tree flowering indicate that blossoms are more endangered at higher elevations.