Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe-Tengchong line under climate change.

Abstract

In the coming decades, geographical distribution patterns of farmland organisms may undergo drastic changes due to climate change, with significant implications for global food security. In China, Rhopalosiphum maidis and its spread of sugarcane mosaic virus (ScMV) can become an increasingly serious threat to maize (Zea mays) production. We conducted ecological niche modeling for Z. mays, R. maidis, and ScMV under current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) climate scenarios by using MaxEnt software to explore changes in this system. The Heihe-Tengchong line (an imaginary separation line of human population density) can divide China into main (east of the line) and secondary (west of the line) habitats for the three species. With climate change, rapid expansion in suitable areas is projected for ScMV and the aphid vector R. maidis. Taking species interactions into consideration, our overlaying analyses show that most areas east of the Heihe-Tengchong line (optimal for maize and suitable for R. maidis) will become increasingly highly suitable for ScMV, suggesting that the prevention and control of this plant virus and its aphid vector in China's main maize-growing areas (e.g. northeast) will become an increasing challenge in the future. Climate change will profoundly affect ScMV-vector-maize interactions, which may contribute favorably to invasion of this virus into new areas. Our comprehensive and in-depth analyses on shifts in this multi-species system under climate change provide useful and insightful information for devising strategies for the prevention and control of plant viruses and aphid vectors on maize in the future. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.