Increasing precipitation variability and climate-growth responses of five tree species in North Carolina, USA

Abstract

We examined the effects of increasing summertime precipitation variability from 1950 to 2022 on the radial-growth responses of five tree species native to central North Carolina, USA. Tree-ring data were collected from chestnut oak, post oak, longleaf pine, shortleaf pine, and Virginia pine and processed following standard dendrochronology procedures. Adjusted latewood chronologies for each species were created and correlated with either monthly or multi-monthly combinations of summertime precipitation for above average (AA, > 1 σ above mean), below average (BA, <−1 σ below mean), and near average (NA, <−1, and 1 > σ) precipitation years. June–September precipitation variability and other summertime monthly combinations significantly increased during the study period, with a 10.2% increase in AA/BA years during the 21st century. Climate-growth correlations ranged from 0.40–0.51 using all years within the study period. However, using AA and BA years exclusively, climate-growth responses ranged from 0.44–0.71, with post oak and longleaf pine experiencing significantly higher correlations. No significant changes in climate-growth responses occurred for chestnut oak, shortleaf pine, and Virginia pine. These findings suggest the effects of increased precipitation variability on climate-growth responses are species-dependent and affected by the precipitation classification (i.e. AA or BA years). These responses help explain temporal variations in the strength of climate-growth responses, particularly for some species, and offer additional considerations for dendroclimatological research.