Abstract
BackgroundAnthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others.Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes.
Highlights
The rapid spread of invasive species in combination with increasing globalization has threatened native biodiversity worldwide and resulted in great economic losses [1,2]
We modeled the effects of climate change on potential global distributions of the invasive red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), which was calibrated with occurrence data from both native and invaded ranges
The robustness of the model was supported by null model tests, which showed that our model ranked first and scored significantly higher than the 99 null model area under the curve (AUC)
Summary
The rapid spread of invasive species in combination with increasing globalization has threatened native biodiversity worldwide and resulted in great economic losses [1,2]. Preventing the introduction of potential invaders is the most effective measure for the management of invasive species [3] Another global environmental issue is the observation that climate change likely driven by human activities, most notably the increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [4]. Climate change has complex effects on the potential distribution of non-native species by altering current climatic habitat [5,6,7]. It can create both greater invasion risks in regions where more areas become climatically suitable and/or reduced invasion risk in regions when areas currently at risk become climatically unsuitable. Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders
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