Abstract
Mass timber products are growing in popularity as a substitute for steel and concrete, reducing embodied carbon in the built environment. This trend has raised questions about the sustainability of the U.S. timber supply. Our research addresses concerns that rising demand for mass timber products may result in unsustainable levels of harvesting in coniferous forests in the United States. Using U.S. Department of Agriculture U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, incremental U.S. softwood (coniferous) timber harvests were projected to supply a high-volume estimate of mass timber and dimensional lumber consumption in 2035. Growth in reserve forests and riparian zones was excluded, and low confidence intervals were used for timber growth estimates, compared with high confidence intervals for harvest and consumption estimates. Results were considered for the U.S. in total and by three geographic regions (North, South, and West). In total, forest inventory growth in America exceeds timber harvests including incremental mass timber volumes. Even the most optimistic projections of mass timber growth will not exceed the lowest expected annual increases in the nation’s harvestable coniferous timber inventory.
Highlights
Mass timber, short for massive timber, is a category of wood products that are engineered for use in large structural applications
Using the SLB projections, our research examines long-term softwood timber supply in the United States considering the growing use of wood products and in particular mass timber products
Incremental conifer lumber consumed if the mass timber forecast volumes are achieved relative to total current annual lumber consumption is shown in Figure 1 and Table 7
Summary
Short for massive timber, is a category of wood products that are engineered for use in large structural applications. Mass timber is made using solid sawn lumber or veneer to create large wood panels, columns, or beams for load-bearing walls, floor, and roof construction. Mass timber products can be made from both softwoods and hardwoods of many different species if engineered properly, but construction-grade softwoods such as spruce, pine, and fir are commonly employed. Mass timber is engineered for high strength ratings like concrete and steel but is usually lighter in weight and can be prefabricated and delivered to the job site, facilitating faster construction with less labor, material waste, and noise pollution on site. Substituting mass timber for concrete and steel avoids the carbon emissions related to the energy-intensive manufacturing of those materials and helps reduce embodied carbon in the built environment.
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