Increasing landslide activity in the Taxkorgan River Basin (eastern Pamirs Plateau, China) driven by climate change

Abstract

Global warming promotes glacier retreat, snow melting, and permafrost thawing, thereby increasing landslide activity in alpine mountain regions. However, our understanding of the effects of climate change on landslides is restricted by the sparse nature of landslide records. In this study, taking the Taxkorgan River basin in the eastern Pamirs as the study area, we assessed the interaction between landslides and climate change over the past 20 years using a reconstructed landslide inventory and a set of downscaled meteorological data, and we projected the future impacts of climate change on landslide activity. From 2000 to 2019, the number of landslides increased exponentially under global warming. Especially in 2000 and 2014, the abrupt increases in temperature and precipitation caused a more significant increase in the number of landslides. Ninety-four percent of the landslides occurred in the warm season (April to October), which is attributed to the diminishing snow cover in the warm season and the increase in the annual snow cover variation. Spatially, the increase in the number of landslides with elevation was due to the increase in the rate of temperature rise, suggesting that the high-elevation region (4500 m above sea level) responds more significantly to climate change and is more susceptible to landslides. The future climate is predicted to exhibit a warming and wetting trend, which will likely induce more frequent landslides for some time. We suggest that in alpine mountain areas, there is an urgent need to improve the comprehensive ground observation network and reveal the underlying relationship between the variable climate and landslides using multiple datasets, which would contribute to the accurate assessment of the risks posed by landslides induced by climate change and the adequate management of this risk under the warming climate in the future.