Increasing incidence of diabetes after gestational diabetes: a long-term follow-up in a Danish population.

Abstract

To study the incidence of diabetes among women with previous diet-treated gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in the light of the general increasing incidence of overweight and diabetes and to identify risk factors for the development of diabetes. Women with diet-treated GDM during 1978-1985 (old cohort, n = 241, also followed up around 1990) or 1987-1996 (new cohort, n = 512) were examined in 2000-2002. Women were classified by a 2-h, 75-g oral glucose tolerance test according to the World Health Organization criteria or an intravenous glucagon test supplemented by measurement of GAD antibodies. Historical data from index-pregnancy and anthropometrical measurements were collected. A total of 481 (63.9%) women were examined (median 9.8 years [interquartile range 6.4-17.2]) after index pregnancy. Diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT)/impaired fasting glucose were present in 40.0 and 27.0% of women, respectively. In the new cohort, 40.9% had diabetes compared with 18.3% in the old cohort at the 1990 follow-up (P < 0.0005). Prepregnancy BMI was significantly higher in the new compared with the old cohort (26.0 [22.5-30.8] vs. 22.9 kg/m2 [20.2-28.0], P < 0.0005). Among others, new-cohort membership, prepregnancy overweight (BMI > or = 25 kg/m2), and IGT postpartum were identified as independent predictors of diabetes by multiple logistic regression analyses. The incidence of diabetes among Danish women with previous diet-treated GDM was very high and had more than doubled over a 10-year period. This seems to be due to a substantial increase in BMI in women with GDM.