Increasing evolution, prevalence, and outbreaks for rift valley fever virus in the process of breaking geographical barriers

Abstract

BackgroundRift valley fever (RVF) is listed as one of prioritized diseases by WHO. This study aims to describe RVF virus' landscape distribution globally, and to insight dynamics change of its evolution, prevalence, and outbreaks in the process of breaking geographical barriers. MethodsA systematic literature review and meta-analyses was conducted to estimate RVF prevalence by hosts using a random-effect model. Molecular clock-based phylogenetic analyses were performed to estimate RVF virus nucleotide substitution rates using nucleotide sequences in NCBI database. RVF virus prevalence, nucleotide substitution rates, and outbreaks were compared before and after breaking geographical barriers twice, respectively. ResultsRVF virus was reported from 26 kinds of hosts covering 48 countries from 1930 to 2022. Since RVF broke geographical barriers, (1) nucleotide substitution rates significantly increased after firstly spreading out of Africa in 2000, (2) prevalence in humans significantly increased from 1.92 % (95 % CI: 0.86–3.25 %) to 3.03 % (95 % CI: 2.09–4.12 %) after it broke Sahara Desert geographical barriers in 1977, and to 5.24 % (95 % CI: 3.81–6.82 %) after 2000, (3) RVF outbreaks in humans and the number of wildlife hosts presented increasing trends. RVF virus spillover may exist between bats and humans, and accelerate viral substitution rates in humans. During outbreaks, the RVF virus substitution rates accelerated in humans. 60.00 % RVF outbreaks occurred 0–2 months after floods and (or) heavy rainfall. ConclusionRVF has the increasing risk to cause pandemics, and global collaboration on “One Health” is needed to prevent potential pandemics.