Increasing Brazilian protected areas network is vital in a changing climate

Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone strategy for conserving biodiversity, but species' range shifts and contractions in response to climate change hinder their effectiveness in the near future. There have been conflicting reports in the literature as to the extent that this is likely to be a problem. Here we used a meta-analytical approach to investigate the issue using Brazil as a case study. Brazil has continental dimensions and extraordinary biodiversity, a large PA system, and solid research on the impact of climate change on biodiversity. From 56 articles assessing the impacts of climate change on PAs, we compiled 342 measures of risk projection, mostly of changes in species' ranges. >70 % of the risk projections point to negative impacts, due to species moving out of PAs. Thus, the current Brazilian PA network is not robust against climate change. The PAs in the Amazon are predicted to be the most impacted and indigenous lands are particularly at risk, followed by PAs in the Cerrado savannas and the Atlantic Forest. Thus, the Brazilian PA system needs to be expanded, explicitly incorporating climate change in systematic conservation planning, to incorporate underrepresented species and regions in order to make the system more robust.