Increases in Subdural Hematoma with an Aging Population—the Future of American Cerebrovascular Disease

Abstract

Subdural hematomas (SDHs) are a common and dangerous condition, with potential for a rapid rise in incidence given the aging U.S. population, but the magnitude of this increase is unknown. Our objective was to characterize the number of SDHs and practicing neurosurgeons from 2003-2016 and project these numbers to2040. Using the National Inpatient Sample years 2003-2016 (nearly 500 million hospitalizations), all hospitalizations with a diagnosis of SDH were identified and grouped by age. Numerical estimates of SDHs were projected to 2040 in 10-year increments for each age group using Poisson modeling with population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The number of neurosurgeons who billed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services from 2012 to 2017 was noted and linearly projected to2040. From 2020-2040, SDH volume is expected to increase by 78.3%, from 135,859 to 208,212. Most of this increase will be seen in the elderly, as patients 75-84 years old will experience an increase from 37,941 to 69,914 and patients older than 85 years old will experience an increase from 31,200 to 67,181. The number of neurosurgeons is projected to increase from 4675 in 2020 to 6252 in2040. SDH is expected to increase significantly from 2020-2040, with the majority of this increase being concentrated in elderly patients. While the number of neurosurgeons will also increase, the ability of current neurosurgical resources to properly handle this expected increase in SDH will need to be addressed on a national scale.