Increased ground-level O3 during the COVID-19 pandemic in China aggravates human health risks but has little effect on winter wheat yield

Abstract

In January 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in China, prompting the enforcement of stringent lockdown measures nationwide to contain its spread. Multiple studies have demonstrated that these measures successfully reduced the levels of air pollutants except for ozone (O3). However, the potential risks of nationwide O3 changes during this period remain uncertain. To address this gap, we evaluated the ecological and health effects of O3 using hourly O3 data from 1 January to 17 June in both 2020 and 2019. Our results indicated that all health and ecological indicators, except SUM06 (sum of all hourly O3 over 60 ppb), during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 increased most obviously in Stages 2 and 3 with the strictest control measures, compared to the same period in 2019. The national premature deaths due to short-term O3 exposure during Stages 2–3 in 2020 totaled 146,558 (95% CI: 79,386–213,730) for all non-accidental causes and 82,408 (95% CI: 30,522–134,295) for cardiovascular diseases, increasing by 18.78% and 18.76% in 2019, respectively. The most significant increase in health risks occurred in Hubei, followed by Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Shaanxi. In addition, the estimated national winter wheat production losses (WWPL) attributable to O3 amounted to 50.6 and 51.1 million metric tons for 2019 and 2020, respectively. Among the major winter wheat-producing provinces, Anhui and Jiangsu experienced a larger increase in WWPL, while Shandong and Hebei suffered a greater decrease in 2020 compared to 2019, resulting in little overall change in WWPL between the two years. These findings provided direct evidence of the harmful effects of O3 during the COVID-19 pandemic and serve as a valuable reference for future air pollution control.