Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change

Abstract

Recent flooding and heavy precipitation events in the US and worldwide have caused great damage to crop production. If the frequency of these weather extremes were to increase in the near future, as recent trends for the US indicate and as projected by global climate models (e.g., US National Assessment, Overview Report, 2001, The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assesment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; Houghton et al., 2001, IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 335pp.), the cost of crop losses in the coming decades could rise dramatically. Yet current assessments of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have not quantified the negative effects on crop production from increased heavy precipitation and flooding (Impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture, in: US National Assessment Foundation Document, 2001. National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC.). In this work, we modify a dynamic crop model in order to simulate one important effect of heavy precipitation on crop growth, plant damage from excess soil moisture. We compute that US corn production losses due to this factor, already significant under current climate, may double during the next thirty years, causing additional damages totaling an estimated $3 billion per year. These costs may either be borne directly by those impacted or transferred to private or governmental insurance and disaster relief programs.