Increased body weight and central adiposity markers are positively associated with the 20-year incidence of cardiovascular disease: The ATTICA epidemiological study (2002–2022)

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Increased adiposity predisposes to cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that the presence of obesity would be positively associated with CVD risk, and that the co-presence of central obesity would modify/enhance this association. This was a prospective study (2002–2022) among 1845 Greek adults (mean age, 44.8 ± 13.5 years; men, 49.8%). At baseline, the presence of overweight/obesity was assessed via body mass index (BMI), whereas central obesity was defined as waist circumference ≥102/88 cm, waist-to-hip-ratio ≥0.95/0.80, or waist-to-height-ratio ≥0.50 in men/women. BMI was reevaluated at 10 years and longitudinal BMI trajectories (2002–2012) were identified. CVD incidence was recorded at 20 years (ratio of new cases to the number of participants assessed). Compared with participants with normal weight at baseline, those with obesity exhibited a 27% higher 20-year CVD risk after adjustment for age, sex, lifestyle habits, and medical status (hazard ratio, 1.271; 95% confidence interval, 1.012–1.597). In similar multiadjusted models, compared with participants who were always non-overweight/obese, those who were always overweight/obese exhibited a 40% higher 20-year CVD risk (hazard ratio, 1.403; 95% confidence interval, 1.018–1.936). Additional control for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein attenuated the associations. In the combined baseline body weight classification analysis, CVD incidence was the lowest in participants with normal weight without central obesity, moderate in those with overweight/obesity without central obesity, and highest in those with normal weight and central obesity and overweight/obesity and central obesity (P < .001). Obesity leads to increased CVD risk, partly mediated by inflammation. The combination of BMI with simple measures of abdominal adiposity is superior for CVD risk screening.