Increase of Total Fuel Cost and Line Capacity for Load Demand under Uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper, the risk of coming across flow neck in electric power systems is considered, and the computational example on expenses required in order to control the risk is shown. Total fuel cost increases by setting margin which control the risk. This cost is necessary cost for the risk hedge. The uncertainty of load demand is assumed to be normal distribution. Then charge of the line flow which is calculated from changes of each load demand is assumed by using sensitivity coefficient. The risk of arising uncertainty of load line flow is shown. In order to control this risk, a margin is introduced, and the relation between this margin and the incremental fuel cost is calculated. This calculation technique can estimate expenses required in order to control the risk arising from uncertainty of load.