Increase in the Value of Agricultural Parcels—Modelling and Simulation of the Effects of Land Consolidation Project

Abstract

In the theory and practice of valuation, it is commonly accepted that the key feature determining the value of agricultural land is its location, both general and in a specific part (zone) of a village. The model approach used in the present study can provide the answer to the question of how to maximize the value of agricultural land as part of a conducted arrangement, agricultural works. The study used data on the market sale of agricultural parcels in 10 Polish municipalities. Each parcel was described using a set of features (parameters) that were key to its value and entered into a database. Using the database, two statistical models were built: a multiple regression analysis model (MRA) and an artificial neural network model (ANN). The studies conducted have shown that changes in such features as surface area, shape, and access to a public road were accompanied by significant changes in the market values of parcels. Another important observation was that potential decreases in the value of agricultural parcels as a result of changes in their surface areas were offset (where it was reasonable) by the elimination of their excessive elongation and providing them with an access to a public road. Based on the findings, it has been concluded that change in land value should be considered one of the effects of executed land consolidation projects (LCP), during which the parameters of agricultural parcels are subject to the biggest changes.