Abstract
Increasing CO 2 concentration ([CO 2]) is likely to affect future species distributions, in interaction with other climate change drivers. However, current modeling approaches still seldom consider interactions between climatic factors and the importance of these interactions therefore remains mostly unexplored. Here, we combined dendrochronological and modeling approaches to study the interactive effects of increasing [CO 2] and temperature on the distribution of one of the main European liana species, Hedera helix. We combined a classical continent‐wide species distribution modeling approach with a case study using H. helix and Quercus cerris tree rings, where we explored the long‐term influence of a variety of climate drivers, including increasing [CO 2], and their interactions, on secondary growth. Finally, we explored how our findings could influence the model predictions. Climate‐only model predictions showed a small decrease in habitat suitability for H. helix in Europe; however, this was accompanied by a strong shift in the distribution toward the north and east. Our growth ring data suggested that H. helix can benefit from high [CO 2] under warm conditions, more than its tree hosts, which showed a weaker response to [CO 2] coupled with higher cavitation risk under high temperature. Increasing [CO 2] might therefore offset the negative effects of high temperatures on H. helix, and we illustrate how this might translate into maintenance of H. helix in warmer areas. Our results highlight the need to consider carbon fertilization and interactions between climate variables in ecological modeling. Combining dendrochronological analyses with spatial distribution modeling may provide opportunities to refine predictions of how climate change will affect species distributions.
Highlights
Ecosystems are changing rapidly in response to increasing temperature, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), all of which are influencing the abundance and distribution of many plant and animal species across the globe (Lindner et al, 2014)
The spatial distribution models (SDMs) showed that changes in temperature and precipitation alone will likely alter the amount of habitat suitable for H. helix in Europe, requiring large range shifts for the species to track its climatic niche (Figure 2)
We found that climate-only models predicted slight changes in the total area suitable for Hedera helix in the future, accompanied by large shifts in the species range toward the north and east of Europe
Summary
Ecosystems are changing rapidly in response to increasing temperature, altered precipitation patterns, and increasing CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), all of which are influencing the abundance and distribution of many plant and animal species across the globe (Lindner et al, 2014). The main tool to model species response to climate change at large scales, spatial distribution models (SDMs), seldom account for increased [CO2], or variable interactions, likely because this is methodologically challenging (Norby & Luo, 2004). As a consequence, it is unclear whether carbon fertilization might interact with other climate change drivers to influence the outcome of climate models. Lianas may be one group that could strongly benefit from climate change and they significantly increased in abundance and productivity in the last decades (Phillips et al, 2002; Schnitzer, 2015; Schnitzer & Bongers, 2002) The drivers behind this trend remain contentious. Liana increase was first reported in the neotropics (Phillips et al, 2002) but since contrasting results have been
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
