Incorporation of management responses in the direction of soil erosion changes from the past to the future based on the RUSLE and DPSIR model

Abstract

Mismanagement and human activities in the environment have a significant effect on increasing the loss of soil. Therefore, the current research is planned to incorporate management responses in the direction of soil erosion changes from the past (2011), the current situation (2021), and the future (2031) through the RUSLE and DPSIR models. In this regard, first, the Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images of 2011 and 2021 have been used to prepare the land cover map of the Eskandari Watershed. Then, the prediction of land cover change was done using the Markov model, and soil erosion was calculated with RUSLE. Then, by organizing a workshop with the presence of stakeholders and experts, the driving force-pressures-state-impacts-responses (DPSIR) were investigated in the direction of soil erosion changes. Finally, the stakeholder's responses were ranked and components were prioritized by the TOPSIS method. The results show that soil erosion in 2011, 2021, and 2031 is 4.49, 7.13, and 11.44 ton/h/y, respectively. In addition, the main driver for increasing soil erosion in the region is the expansion of agricultural land (82.0%). The pressure of destruction and change of land use (90.1%) is one of the most important reasons for the development of improper agriculture (86.5%) in the region, which has the most main effect on the increase of flood and erosion damage (82.5%). In this regard; strengthening of supervisory and executive mechanisms and modification of laws with a score of 0.741 is an appropriate management response in the Eskandari Watershed. Also, the implementation of comprehensive watershed management programs (0.694) and management and organizational cohesion (0.551) are assigned the next priorities respectively. Finally; the results of prioritization based on the weights obtained regarding the contribution of the components in the direction of increasing soil erosion showed that the pressure component (0.302) has the highest contribution and the impact (0.24), driver (0.231) and state (0.227) components are respectively in the next priorities. While; the suggested with the implementation of management responses; the contribution of pressure, impact, state, and driver components on soil erosion in the watershed should be reduced to 0.396, 0.272, 0.247, and 0.085 respectively. In this regard; the current research is significant in terms of the attention of managers and experts in the implementation of corrective management based on the results obtained. So; to prevent the increase of soil loss and improve the watershed situation, the policies of the land sector should be carried out in a larger context and with internal and external cooperation.