Incorporating Uncertainty into Transportation Decision Making

Abstract

Incorporating uncertainty into transportation decision making has become a more important activity as evidenced by the popularity of scenario-based approaches in the regional transportation planning process. Particularly in decision making to promote sustainability, uncertainty and risk factors can be important elements because they can influence which alternative is perceived as the most desirable depending on a wide range of parameters. The objective of the study is to demonstrate how some of these uncertainties can be incorporated when a multiple-criteria decision-making method is used to choose the most desirable among competing alternatives. Using data from the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan region, this paper examines the sensitivity of the relative desirability of competing transportation and land use plans to changes in regional priorities and weights for sustainability parameters. Throughout the study, sensitivity analysis is used as a tool to incorporate the variability in criteria weights and concurrent variation in the sustainability evaluation results and final decision. These exercises could help decision makers determine how changing the emphasis on different regional priorities could most effectively result in desired regional outcomes.