Incorporating the influence of China's industrial capacity elimination policies in electricity demand forecasting

Abstract

Elimination of high-emitting industrial capacity can be an effective way to control and relieve air pollution but it will also influence demand. Accurate forecasting of electricity demand requires consideration of the impact of capacity elimination policies. This paper applies a modified firefly algorithm improved by Gaussian disturbance to optimize the parameters of Support Vector Machine (SVM) in order to quantify the impact of capacity elimination policies. We consider three policy scenarios and three growth scenarios in our analysis. The results demonstrate that modified firefly algorithm (MFA) can improve the forecasting performance of SVM and electricity demand forecasting considering the influence of capacity elimination policies, and provide good reference for policy analysis and electricity demand analysis.