Incorporating the field border effect to reduce the predicted uncertainty of pollen dispersal model in Asia

Yuan-Chih Su,Cheng-Bin Lee,Bo-Jein Kuo,Tien-Joung Yiu

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-01583-x

Abstract

The presence of the field border (FB), such as roadways or unplanted areas, between two fields is common in Asian farming system. This study evaluated the effect of the FB on the cross-pollination (CP) and predicted the CP rate in the field considering and not considering FB. Three experiments including 0, 6.75, and 7.5 m width of the FB respectively were conducted to investigate the effect of distance and the FB on the CP rate. The dispersal models combined kernel and observation model by calculating the parameter of observation model from the output of kernel. These models were employed to predict the CP rate at different distances. The Bayesian method was used to estimate parameters and provided a good prediction with uncertainty. The highest average CP rates in the field with and without FB were 74.29% and 36.12%, respectively. It was found that two dispersal models with the FB effect displayed a higher ability to predict average CP rates. The correlation coefficients between actual CP rates and CP rates predicted by the dispersal model combined zero-inflated Poisson observation model with compound exponential kernel and modified Cauchy kernel were 0.834 and 0.833, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive uncertainty was reducing using the dispersal models with the FB effect.

Highlights

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most important genetically modified (GM) crops globally, and the area of GM maize accounts for 32% of the total GM crop a rea[1]
GM crops are crucial in the global crop production, the safety of GM products is still debated between producers and consumers, even though GM products have been on the market for two decades[2]
The dispersal models without the field border (FB) effect underestimated the CP rates at distances of 7.5 m and 8.25 m. These results showed that the dispersal models with the FB effect could reduce the predicted uncertainty at the field conditions with and without FB

Summary

Introduction

Maize (Zea mays L.) is one of the most important genetically modified (GM) crops globally, and the area of GM maize accounts for 32% of the total GM crop a rea[1]. The hybridization of GM crops and wild relatives has been studied in the p ast[7,8]. When conventional crop production cannot yield food sufficiently for the entire population, producers and consumers must seek solutions from other crop production systems. The coexistence between GM and non-GM crop production systems has been studied in past 2 decades. Coexistence denotes that farmers can choose between organic, non-GM, and GM crop production systems, but the GM contents of the products must meet the labeling s tandard[11]. Pollen dispersal is the main source of AP in the maize production. The maize has a relative high setting velocity because of the pollen size. The result of pollen dispersal varies widely with the environments and the plants

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion