Incorporating the effects of topographic amplification in the analysis of earthquake-induced landslide hazards using logistic regression

S T Lee,T T Yu,W F Peng,C L Wang

doi:10.5194/nhess-10-2475-2010

S T Lee, T T Yu + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2475-2010

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Abstract

Abstract. Seismic-induced landslide hazards are studied using seismic shaking intensity based on the topographic amplification effect. The estimation of the topographic effect includes the theoretical topographic amplification factors and the corresponding amplified ground motion. Digital elevation models (DEM) with a 5-m grid space are used. The logistic regression model and the geographic information system (GIS) are used to perform the seismic landslide hazard analysis. The 99 Peaks area, located 3 km away from the ruptured fault of the Chi-Chi earthquake, is used to test the proposed hypothesis. An inventory map of earthquake-triggered landslides is used to produce a dependent variable that takes a value of 0 (no landslides) or 1 (landslides). A set of independent parameters, including lithology, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, terrain roughness, land use, and Arias intensity (Ia) with the topographic effect. Subsequently, logistic regression is used to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the occurrence and absence of landslides within an individual grid cell. The results of seismic landslide hazard analysis that includes the topographic effect (AUROC = 0.890) are better than those of the analysis without it (AUROC = 0.874).

Highlights

Landslides triggered by earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis summarizes the performance of a logistic regression model
The model includes the topographic effect in the landslide hazard analysis, it ignores the distance effect for far-field earthquakes and the highly variable near-field ground motion because the reference motion was recorded at a single seismic station

Summary

Introduction

Landslides triggered by earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Seismic landslide hazard analysis is used to estimate the probability of slope failure due to an earthquake. The highly susceptible slopes in conventional hazard maps represent areas of high potential failure triggered by earthquakes. Many modeling approaches for landslide hazard prediction can be used to produce statistics-based susceptibility maps. Logistic regression and statistical models have been developed using the geographic information system (GIS) for landslide susceptibility mapping (Atkinson and Massari, 1998; Rowbotham and Dudycha, 1998; Lee and Min, 2001; Ayalew and Yamagishi, 2005; Mathew et al, 2007; Chang et al, 2008; Garcia-Rodriguez et al, 2008; Yilmaz, 2009). The main trigger factor of earthquake-induced landslides is the intensity of seismic shaking.

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