Incorporating stakeholders' knowledge to stock assessment: Central Baltic herring

Abstract

We present a method by which the knowledge of stakeholders can be taken into account in stock assessment. The approach consists of a structured interview process followed by quantitative modelling of the answers. The outcome is a set of probability models, each describing the views of different stakeholders. Individual models are then merged to a large model by applying the techniques of Bayesian model averaging, and this model is conditioned on stock assessment data. As a result, the views of interviewed stakeholders have been taken into account and weighed based on how well their views are supported by the observed data. We applied this method to the Baltic Sea herring (Clupea harengus) stock assessment by interviewing six stakeholders and conditioning the resulting models on stock assessment data provided by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.