Incorporating Passenger Load in Public Transport Systems and its Implementation in Nationwide Models

Abstract

Abstract Reducing CO2 emissions is crucial to climate change mitigation, but there has been little progress made in the transport sector. Public transport could make a significant contribution, which would require substantial changes in travel demand. In various national transport models proportionally increasing capacities have been assumed; this must be scrutinized in the light of urgency, long-term planning and construction processes and limited financial resources. This paper presents an approach that addresses previous obstacles to the integration of unchanged capacities, namely the lack of a detailed public transport service model and rapidly increasing computation times even in small networks. Based on widely available data on public transport supply and the consideration of previous studies on the relationship between variable vehicle load and the resulting costs for passengers, an extension for a nationwide transport model is developed. In two scenarios – a substantial reduction in local public transport fares and the introduction of a charge for motorized private transport – it is shown that significantly different demand effects occur when passenger load is considered.