Incorporating operational constraints into long-term energy planning: The case of the Egyptian power system under high share of renewables

Abstract

This study assesses the performance of Egypt's energy system on a short-term basis to ensure that it can handle a high share of renewable energy, as predicted in the long-term planning up to 2040. PLEXOS software is used for short-term analysis to simulate operational performance on an hourly basis while considering the constraints of Unit Commitment (UC) and Economic Dispatch (ED). The long-term energy planning model, which covered the years 2020–2040 with chosen representative years (2020 as the base year and 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040), was validated by the short-term operational model. The results from the short-term analysis indicate that by the year 2040, 69.5 % of the electricity mix from renewable energy sources (excluding hydro) can be accommodated, representing a slightly lower capacity than the 70 % predicted by the long-term plan. Due to the high share of intermittent renewable energy sources, traditional generators will experience excessive cycling in 2040. The average weighted short-run marginal cost in 2040 is projected to be 7.8 USD/MWh, compared to 18.37 USD/MWh in 2020, due to the low operating costs of renewable energy plants and their high penetration in 2040. Various operational techniques have been suggested to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy to achieve only 1.2 % of the total energy generation of the system by 2040. Additionally, other adjustments to the system operation are being considered to maintain a balance in the power system on a short-term basis.