Abstract
Incorporating Mid-Term Temperature Predictions into Streamflow Forecasts and Operational Reservoir Projections in the Colorado River Basin
Highlights
Wood et al (2020) provided an overview of streamflow forecasting in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), with a focus on the streamflow forecasts used to drive operational models for the US Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation)
Operational streamflow forecasts in the CRB are issued by the Colorado Basin River Forecasting Center (CBRFC), using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method
Streamflow forecasts gain skill from two main sources: initial conditions, at shorter lead times, and future climate forcings, which become increasingly important at longer lead times (Li et al 2009; Wood et al 2016)
Summary
Wood et al (2020) provided an overview of streamflow forecasting in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), with a focus on the streamflow forecasts used to drive operational models for the US Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation). Operational streamflow forecasts in the CRB are issued by the Colorado Basin River Forecasting Center (CBRFC), using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. ESP is a dynamic hydrological approach, initialized with basinobserved conditions, and run out with historical climate time series, to produce a probabilistic streamflow ensemble (Day 1985). The forecasted ESP streamflow traces are used to drive one of Reclamation’s operational models, the Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System (CRMMS), formerly known as the Mid-Term Probabilistic Operations Model (MTOM). Any improvements to ESP-based data that drive CRMMS would be welcome by the community and stakeholders in the basin, with potential benefits for management and planning
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