Incorporating Medium-Range Numerical Weather Model Output into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System of the National Weather Service

Abstract

Abstract This study introduces medium-range meteorological ensemble inputs of temperature and precipitation into the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction component of the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS). The Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) produced a reforecast archive of model forecast runs from a dynamically frozen version of the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model. This archive was used to derive statistical relationships between MRF variables and historical basin-average precipitation and temperatures. The latter are used to feed the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) component of the NWSRFS. Two sets of ESP reforecasts were produced: A control run based on historically observed temperature and precipitation and an experimental run based on MRF-derived temperature and precipitation. This study found the MRF reforecasts to be generally superior to the control reforecasts, although there were situations when the downscaled MRF output actually degraded the forecast. Forecast improvements were most pronounced during the rising limb of the hydrograph—at this time accurate temperature forecasts improve predictions of the rate of snowmelt. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts at short forecast lead times may be possible by incorporating output from high-resolution regional atmospheric models into the NWSRFS.