Abstract
Abstract: We show how intervention analysis can be used in conjunction with dynamic performance modeling to analyze the effect of maintenance activities on the performance of infrastructure facilities. Specifically, we consider state‐space specifications of autoregressive moving averages with exogenous inputs models to develop deterioration and inspection models for infrastructure facilities, and intervention analysis to estimate transitory and permanent effects of maintenance, for example, performance jumps or deterioration rate changes. To illustrate the methodology, we analyze the effectiveness of an overlay on a flexible pavement section from the AASHO Road Test. The results show the effect of the overlay on improvements both on surface distress, that is, rutting and slope variance, as well as on the pavement's underlying serviceability. The results also provide evidence that the overlay changes the pavement's response to traffic, that is, the overlay causes a reduction in the rate at which traffic damages the pavement.
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