Abstract
For decades, electrification planning in the developing world has often focused on extending the national grid to increase electricity access. This article draws attention to the potential complementary role of decentralized alternatives – primarily micro-grids – to address universal electricity access targets. To this aim, we propose a methodology consisting of three steps to estimate the LCOE and to size micro-grids for large-scale geo-spatial electrification modelling. In the first step, stochastic load demand profiles are generated for a wide range of settlement archetypes using the open-source RAMP model. In the second step, stochastic optimization is carried by the open-source MicroGridsPy model for combinations of settlement size, load demand profiles and other important techno-economic parameters influencing the LCOE. In the third step, surrogate models are generated to automatically evaluate the LCOE using a multivariate regression of micro-grid optimization results as a function of influencing parameters defining each scenario instance. Our developments coupled to the OnSSET electrification tool reveal an important increase in the cost-competitiveness of micro-grids compared to previous analyses.
Highlights
Access to electricity is a fundamental driver to reduce poverty and enable social, economic and human development (Karekezi et al, 2012)
Looking at the R-squared scores, we find a regression correlation higher than 95% for all models, with the only exemption of solar-only micro-grids with correlation of 92%
Looking at the Durbin Watson (DW) residual autocorrelation test score, we found no autocorrelation in any of the models (DW = 2 means no autocorrelation)
Summary
Access to electricity is a fundamental driver to reduce poverty and enable social, economic and human development (Karekezi et al, 2012). Electricity access has often been measured as a binary issue of households being connected to electricity or not (International Energy Agency and the World Bank, 2015). To accomplish desired socio-economic development benefits, multiple aspects of energy access – quantity, reliability, affordability, sustainability and safety – should be accounted when designing electrification solutions for unserved or underserved populations (Bhatia and Angelou, 2015). Electricity access does not automatically bring desired socio-economic development benefits to newly electrified populations (Odarno et al, 2017). Energy access initiatives should build upon the understanding between electricity demand and cost of supply to ensure that electricity access and development become mutually reinforcing endeavours (Odarno et al, 2017)
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