Incorporating “Fuzzy” Data and Logical Relations in the Design of Expert Systems for Nuclear Reactors

Abstract

This paper applies the method of assigning probability in Dempster Shafer Theory (DST) to the components of rule-based expert systems used in the control of nuclear reactors. Probabilities are assigned to premises, consequences, and rules themselves. This paper considers how uncertainty can propagate through a system of Boolean equations, such as fault trees or expert systems. The probability masses assigned to primary initiating events in the expert system can be derived from observing a nuclear reactor in operation or based on engineering knowledge of the reactor parts. Use of DST mass assignments offers greater flexibility to the construction of expert systems in two important respects.