Abstract
This study aims to investigate the tsunami exposure to current land use land cover (LULC) with the LULC predictions for the next 50 years, including the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) in Banda Aceh. This study began with a spatio-temporal dynamic analysis using LULC changes projection. Firstly, Markov Chain was used to simulate the changing trends in land use from 2011 to 2015. The changing trends were used to simulate land use predictions for 2015-2065 using Cellular Automata (CA). There were six main types of LULC classifications, i.e., ponds, built-up areas, mangroves, bare land, urban forests, and water areas. Furthermore, the map resulting from the land use simulation was used as the Manning Coefficients for tsunami simulation using the COMCOT model. The initial tsunami waves were generated based on the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami caused by 9.15 Mw earthquake. As a dynamic tsunami hazard approach, a sea-level rise of 0.35 m was considered for the next 50 years. The study results show the built-up area will be affected by the tsunami, about two-thirds of the city’s built area. Growth tends to occur in the southern part of the city outside the tsunami hazard zone. But there will also be the growth of built-up areas near the coast. Although much development is observed in the southern part of the city, the coastal area also needs attention because the sea level rise factor can exacerbate the impacts of tsunamis in the future.
Highlights
Population in coastal areas grows rapidly from time to time
The primary effect of high population growth is a change in land use and land cover (LULC)
Urbanization commonly occurs in the main city like Banda Aceh because it is the center of government, economy, and education
Summary
Population in coastal areas grows rapidly from time to time. The primary effect of high population growth is a change in land use and land cover (LULC). Population growth in coastal areas is followed by potential associated coastal hazards. Several studies have proven that SLR can cause flooding [2] and exacerbate the impact of tsunami waves [3], [4]. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused massive destructions on coastal cities in several countries in the Indian Ocean basin. The tsunami inundated 60% of the city of Banda Aceh, destroying everything in its path due to the extreme wave velocity. During the rehabilitation and reconstruction period between 2005-2009, Banda Aceh underwent massive reconstruction with 90.8% growth in the built-up area [6]. As the capital city of Aceh Province, population growth is mainly an urbanization factor. Urbanization commonly occurs in the main city like Banda Aceh because it is the center of government, economy, and education
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