Abstract
A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is applied to a simple adaptive expectations model of historically based long-term energy price forecasting to evaluate the appropriate weighting of current prices. Maximum likelihood estimates for five- and ten-year forecasts are produced, along with corresponding one-standard-deviation dispersions, and compared with both the ordinary least squares estimates prepared by Manne and Schrattenholzer (1986b) and the 1985 IEW Poll responses. Disagreement across poll respondents seems to understate the uncertainty reflected in efficient forecasts derived from historical price data. The averages of the poll responses are, in addition, higher than the corresponding likelihood estimates.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
