Incorporating CREAM and MCS into fault tree analysis of LNG carrier spill accidents

Abstract

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is a clean, efficient and economic energy, which is mainly transported by LNG carriers in the marine industry. Possible spilling of cryogenic LNG puts safety of crew in danger due to fire and explosion hazards. Taking into account various uncertainties, a modified fault tree model for LNG spill accident during LNG carriers’ handling operations is constructed in this study. Human factor analysis is introduced with a goal to predict human errors in LNG carriers’ handling operation. Finally, the results of the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) are combined, so that risks can be assessed using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Comparing the results of risk assessment with the traditional FTA and corresponding criterion set, an important reference for LNG carrier management is provided for administration.