Abstract
The energy transition requires policy makers to adopt a holistic view that also considers non-economic factors when developing cleaner technology deployment schemes. In particular, a broad knowledge base is required to ensure an efficient energetic use of the limited biomass potential. Energy system optimization models are widely used to inform decision makers about energy transition strategies. The heterogeneity of consumers, especially in the heat sector, is rarely considered in these models and therefore these models lack of completion to contribute to this holistic approach. In this study, a literature review was conducted to find empirical data on consumer behavior regarding the adoption of residential heating systems. This data was integrated into an optimization model for the German heat sector, combining established methods for integrating consumer heterogeneity with a novel approach for calculating indirect costs representing behavioral factors. The incorporation of consumer choice leads to a broader distribution of market shares of different technologies in both a “business-as-usual” scenario and an “ambitious measures” scenario. In particular, the future role of log wood technologies in the private household sector may have been underestimated in previous studies and should be discussed, when designing policies. With this study, the knowledge base for decision makers was extended to discuss the future efficient use of biomass within the German heat sector.
Highlights
Germany has set the target to reduce GHG emissions by 80–95% until 2050 compared to 1990, including emissions from the heat sector, responsible for 53.5% of the German energy demand [10]
In this study a literature review was conducted, identifying empirical data on consumer behavior for adopting residential heating systems. This data was integrated into an Energy system optimization models (ESOM) for the German heat sector, combining established methods for integrating consumer heterogeneity and a novel approach for calculating indirect costs, representing behavioral factors
The results show that future log wood, wood pellet and heat pump technology market shares are less represented in the Business as usual scenario (BAU) scenario without consumer choice being applied, see Fig. 4
Summary
Germany has set the target to reduce GHG emissions by 80–95% until 2050 compared to 1990, including emissions from the heat sector, responsible for 53.5% of the German energy demand [10]. Investment behavior beyond economic rationality may influence future, projected market developments and raises a methodological challenge for ESOMs, which rely on the assumption of cost minimization. Cost-based analyses need to be complemented with methods including consumer heterogeneity and behavioral factors influencing investment decisions beyond cost minimization, in order to inform policy. Cayla and Maïzi [11] conducted a survey and identified three key parameters influencing consumer choice in the French heat sector Based on these three parameters, a segmentation in the TIMES model was conducted. A literature review was conducted, identifying behavioral factors influencing consumer heating system investment decisions beyond cost minimization. - Which model projections develop in the German heat sector under consideration of consumer choice in different scenarios?
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