Incorporating carbon sequestration into lake management: A potential perspective on climate change

Abstract

Exploring the carbon sequestration capacity of water ecosystems would contribute to coping with climate change. This study conducted an integrated method framework to achieve an improved understanding of the relationship between carbon sequestration and lake ecosystem components, as well as provide a new perspective on climate change for policymakers. The vertically generalized production model revealed the carbon sequestration capacity of lakes. The hierarchical linear model identified the cross-scale factors affecting phytoplankton. Then a developed multi-agents-based model with scenario analysis provided adaptive management strategies for carbon sequestration. Furthermore, we applied the integrated framework in the 63 polluted lakes of Wuhan. The results showed that the average carbon sequestration per unit area was at 0.87 kgC·m−2·a−1, which was greater than that of the ocean and forest ecosystems, indicating that the lakes had a potential capacity for carbon sequestration. Total phosphorus had the strongest effect on the Chl-a (chlorophyll a) concentration (fixed effect (γ) =6.82, P < 0.1), followed by total nitrogen (γ = 6.38, P < 0.05), Rotifer biomass (γ = 1.95, P < 0.01) and water temperature (γ = 1.27, P < 0.05). These results indicated that the bottom-up effect of chemical factors on phytoplankton was greater than the top-down effect of zooplankton. The proportion of grassland at the whole-lakes level would have a negative synergistic impact on the Chl-a with changing the micro water temperature at the part-lakes level (γ = −46.64, P < 0.05). There was no significant interaction effect between land cover change and total nitrogen (phosphorus) on the Chl-a. Therefore, we could indirectly confirm that point source pollution emissions would synergistically affect the Chl-a and carbon sequestration along with the effects of physical-chemical conditions. The coordinated proportional control of nitrogen and phosphorus and the artificial controlling biomass of zooplankton-feeding fish were proposed to improve carbon sequestration and water quality for lake management.