Incorporating biotic interactions to better model current and future vegetation of the maritime Antarctic

Abstract

Maritime Antarctica's harsh abiotic conditions forged simple terrestrial ecosystems, mostly constituted of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants. Though biotic interactions are, together with abiotic factors, thought to help shape this ecosystem, influencing species' distribution and, indirectly, mediating their response to climate, the importance of these interactions is still fairly unknown. We modeled current and future abundance patterns of bryophytes, lichens, and vascular plants, accounting for biotic interactions and abiotic drivers, along a climatic gradient in maritime Antarctica. The influence of regional climate and other drivers was modeled using structural equation models, with and without biotic interactions. Models with biotic interactions performed better; the one offering higher ecological support was used to estimate current and future spatial distributions of vegetation. Results suggest that plants are confined to lower elevations, negatively impacting bryophytes and lichens, whereas at higher elevations both climate and other drivers influence bryophytes and lichens. Our findings strongly support the use of biotic interactions to predict the spatial distribution of Antarctic vegetation.