INCORPORATING ANN WITH PCR FOR PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPING OF AIR POLLUTION INDEX FORECAST

Abstract

This study circumscribes the modelling for concentration of Air Pollutant Index (API) in Selangor, Malaysia. The five monitored environmental pollutant concentrations (O3, CO, NO2, SO2, PM10) for ten years (2006 to 2015) data are used in this study to develop the prediction of API. The selected study area is located in rapid urbanised areas and surrounded by a number of industries, and is highly influenced by congested traffic. The principal component regression (PCR) for the combination of the principal component analysis together with multiple regression analysis, and artificial neural network (ANN), are used to predict the API concentration level. An additional approach using a combination method of PCR and ANN are included into the study to improve the API accuracy of prediction. The resulting prediction models are consistent with the observed value. The prediction techniques of PCR, ANN, and a combination method of R2 values are 0.931, 0.956, and 0.991 respectively. The combination method of PCR and ANN are detected to reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of API concentration. In conclusion, different techniques were used in the combination method of API prediction which had improved and provided better accuracy rather than being dependent on the single prediction model.