Incorporating accessibility limitation into the surplus production model

Abstract

Limited access to aquatic populations hinders estimation of their status and establishment of effective management measures. We propose a modified surplus production model to cope with this problem. The model provides population parameters and biological reference points from a time series of annual accessible abundance data. Simulation tests showed that the model provided biological reference point estimates with little bias when sufficiently long time series were available. Even for short time series, we could obtain nearly unbiased estimates by providing information on the exploitation rate at the maximum sustainable yield (F MSY). As an application, we fit the modified surplus production model to 7-year accessible biomass estimates of a local population of Japanese spiky sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus using a Bayesian approach. The results indicated that the stock in the area studied was likely to have experienced recent overfishing and had a high probability of being overfished in the future.