Incomes of the Population of Kazakhstan: Differentiation and Forecast

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to forecast and determine the main factors affecting the growth of per capita income of the population of Kazakhstan. The paper is devoted to an urgent problem – differentiation and forecast of the income level of the population of Kazakhstan. In the study, based on the results of a survey conducted as part of the study in 2021, 4 conditionally defined social groups were formed according to the subjective integral assessment of respondents' own income. Based on the formed decile groups of respondents, the Gini coefficient was calculated and compared with official statistics. The method of statistical forecasting was used in the preparation of the article. With the help of factor forecasting, the system of the interrelation of per capita monetary incomes of the population with other factors is modelled. In the article, when finding factors affecting the incomes of the population of Kazakhstan, a model was obtained in which six factors turned out to be statistically significant: Three indicators of them, these are the Minimum wage, the Minimum pension and Subsistence minimum, are state minimum social standards. It is obvious that it is necessary to revise the indicators on the value of which the level and quality of life of the population and the economic growth of the country depend. In further studies, based on the results obtained, it is planned to develop recommendations for reducing income inequality in Kazakhstan.