Income Growth, Urbanization, Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es- timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out- put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require- ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents＇ life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low- carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.