Abstract

This study focuses on the transmission of inequality over the working life. A model of constrained intertemporal choice is used to provide structure to the distributional dynamics of wages, earnings, income and consumption. The mechanisms used to insure labour market shocks are examined in a partial-insurance setting where the manner and scope for insurance depends on the access to credit, the information available to consumers and the durability of income shocks. Drawing on recent research, family labour supply, the credit market and the tax system are all shown to play a key role. These mechanisms vary in importance across different points of the life cycle and the business cycle. © 2014 The Author(s). The Economic Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Economic Society.

Highlights

  • The objective of the research reported in this article is to use the framework of constrained intertemporal choice over consumption, saving and family labour supply to provide a structure for the distributional dynamics of wages, earnings, income and consumption

  • Taking labour market shocks as the primary source of uncertainty, the aim is to examine the linkages between the distribution of wages, earnings, joint labour supply, savings and consumption

  • The key idea is to use the framework of constrained intertemporal choice to provide a structure for the distributional dynamics of inequality over the working life

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Summary

Some Panel Data Income Dynamics

There is an extensive applied econometrics literature modelling income dynamics using the extensive panel data available for most modern economies. The focus in this article is on non-stationarity and on the persistence of shocks These are some of the key components of labour income dynamics as they impact on consumption and saving decisions. Where yiPt is a persistent process of income shocks which adds to the individual-specific trend (by age and time) Bi0;a;t fi and where yiTt is a transitory shock represented by some low-order MA process. Allowing for a higher MA process relaxes this; but at some point, the autocovariance structure for income growth drops to zero. This observation is a key source of identification in ‘permanent–transitory’ panel data models of income dynamics (MaCurdy 1982; Meghir and Pistaferri, 2004, 2011)

Idiosyncratic Trends
The Permanent–transitory Model of Income Dynamics
Self-insurance
Linking the Evolution of the Consumption and Income Distributions
When Does Consumption Inequality Measure Welfare Inequality?
Partial Insurance
Consumption Dynamics with Partial Insurance
The Key Panel Data Moments
Identification
Non-stationarity
What can we Learn from Repeated Cross Sections?
Partial-insurance Parameters for the US
The Importance of Measuring Assets
Excess Insurance?
Inequality During the Recession
Additional ‘Insurance’ Mechanisms
Taxes and Transfers
Family Labour Supply
Robustness Issues
Distinguishing Permanent from Transitory Shocks
Anticipation and Information
Alternative ‘Economies’
Findings
Summary and Future Directions

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