Abstract
Recent developments in the relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and world seaborne trade have put the focus on variables affecting the GDP/trade multiplier. While the link between inequality and growth is long explored, and the one between container trades and income inequality better understood, the relation between inequality and bulk cargo demand is more uncertain and less inviting for research exploration. Developments in the geography of production and in GDP growth trends, along with a number of international economic and social developments, make the link between the two open to multiple scenarios. The link between income inequality and dry bulk cargo demand includes the combined impact of a large number of variables and can vary further according to the potential direction of related changes. The authors explore the nature and range of main international economic and social developments and their potential for international bulk shipping through their impact on demand. The main aim of the paper is to isolate more clearly defined trends from presently uncertain ones to allow the future modelling of bulk shipping demand based on ensuing permutations.
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