Inclusion of plant structure and fiber quality into a distributed delay cotton model to improve management and optimize profit

Abstract

Abstract This research introduces a simple variation of distributed delay algorithms to solve some relevant problems in simulation of plant development. Cotton was used as a case study. An energy-based model of cotton plant growth was expanded to account for production of fruit at different main-stem nodes and fruiting branch positions. The inclusion of plant structure in a simulation model permitted more accurate estimation of projected harvest value. The implications to crop and pest management are two-fold. Higher levels of resolution in the plant structure can result in improved estimates of crop value and insect economic injury levels. More explicit representation of plant structure provides a more natural framework for integrated insect models based on organism behavior such as location and fruit size preference. An algorithm is presented to enhance the resolution of ecological applications that include developmental variability. The effects of cotton plant structure on cotton lint yield and fiber quality were determined for a short-season cultivar, TAMCOT CD3H. An existing cotton plant model, COTSIM, was used and adapted to short-season production. The cotton plant model was modified to include plant architecture. Fiber quality parameters and yield of fruit at different branch positions were determined for the test cultivar. Arrays corresponding to different fruiting branch positions and fiber property trends were constructed to better corresponde with patterns observed in field data. These patterns showed that fiber properties are closely associated with the positions on a fruiting branch. The development of fruit position-cohorts was modeled using an algorithm that simulates the distribution of growth rates with a time-distributed delay. This algorithm was extended to include arrays to represent fruit produced at different fruiting branch positions on the plant. The model predicted observed fruiting data from non-stressed plants well. The inclusion of the effects of plant structure on cotton yield and fiber quality permitted a more accurate determination of cotton prices. In addition, when linked to insect pest models, this model will simulate a dynamic, position-dependent effect of insect damage on fruiting structures and economic loss.