Abstract
BackgroundIn Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years.MethodsGBD 2015 used verbal autopsy surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using cause of death ensemble modelling.ResultsThe number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 1.4–4.5 million] in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI 462,230–797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323 deaths (95% UI 11,533.3–61,215.3) in 1990 and 1561 deaths (95% UI 752.8–2660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI 0.76–4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI 0.12–0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period.ConclusionsEthiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the millennium development goals. The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the sustainable development goals.
Highlights
In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately
The key sources of data to model the burden of malaria in Ethiopia included verbal autopsy (VA) from the health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS), Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS), other surveys such as malaria indicator surveys (MIS) of Ethiopia and Ministry of Health reports submitted to UN agencies and published scientific articles [13]
Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annualized rate of change (ARC) of 13.4% (Table 1)
Summary
In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. The 2015 global burden of diseases, injuries and risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Ethiopia has registered remarkable progress in reducing the burden of malaria and other major communicable diseases over the last two decades [1, 2]. The burden of malaria has declined significantly, which could be the result of improved coverage of high impact interventions, such as prompt treatment of cases using artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), prevention and control of malaria among pregnant women using intermittent preventive therapy (IPT), use vector control methods including insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and indoor residual spray (IRS) [3,4,5]. Malaria deaths and admissions in children age under-5 fell by 81 and 73%, respectively, after the scale-up of ITNs, IRS and ACT interventions between 2006 and 2011 [4]. It is still among the ten top leading causes of morbidity and mortality in children under-5 years [8].
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