Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a cohort of workers from the University of Porto, Portugal

Abstract

Background Repeated serosurveys in the same population provide more accurate estimates of the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection and more comparable data over time than notified cases. We aimed to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, identify associated factors, and assess time trends in the ratio of serological/molecular diagnosis in a cohort of university workers. Methods Participants had a serological rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulins M and G, and completed a questionnaire, in May–July 2020 (n = 3628) and November 2020–January 2021 (n = 2661); 1960 participated in both evaluations and provided data to compute the incidence proportion and the incidence rate. Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using generalized linear models with Poisson regression. Results The incidence rate was 1.8/100 person–months (95% CI: 1.5–2.0), and the 6 months’ cumulative incidence was 10.7%. The serological/molecular diagnosis ratio was 10:1 in the first evaluation and 3:1 in the second. Considering newly identified seropositive cases at the first (n = 69) and second evaluation (n = 202), 29.0% and 9.4% never reported symptoms, respectively, 14.5% and 33.3% reported contact with a confirmed case and 82.6%, and 46.0% never had a molecular test. Males (aIRR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44–0.85) and ‘high-skilled white-collar’ workers (aIRR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.53–1.04) had lower risk of infection. Conclusion University workers presented a high SARS-CoV-2 incidence while restrictive measures were in place. The time decrease in the proportion of undiagnosed cases reflected the increased access and awareness to testing, but opportunities continued to be missed, even in the presence of COVID-19-like symptoms.