Incidence of frailty and construction of prediction model in elderly male patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Abstract

The incidence of frailty was studied and prediction model was constructed for the elderly male patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Total of 266 elderly males having COPD were selected, and Fried Frailty Phenotype was employed to investigate their frailty status. According to the clinical experience, literature and reports; age, BMI (Body Mass Index), course and condition of COPD, laboratory findings, lung function, life quality, nutritional status and disease acceptance were designated as independent variables; and the incidence of frailty was taken as dependent variable. A binary logistic regression model was applied to analyze the factors affecting incidence of frailty, and a prediction model was constructed for the clinical screening of elderly male COPD patients at high frailty risk. The scores of 266 elderly male COPD patients investigated by frailty phenotype (FP) phenotype ranged from 0 to 5, and mean score was 1.83 ± 0.43. Total of 103 patients scored more than 3 among these patients. The frailty detection rate was 38.72%. Multi-factors logistic regression analysis suggested that age, hospitalization for acute exacerbation of COPD within a year, and interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels were the risk factors for incidence of frailty in elderly male COPD patients, while FEV1 (Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 second) and MNA-SF (Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form) levels were the protective factors. COPD frailty was higher in elderly men. Age, inflammatory response, lung function, disease control and nutritional status were the independent factors affecting incidence of frailty. Strengthening the screening for frailty in elderly patients and monitoring their inflammatory response, lung function, and nutritional status were significant in reducing incidence and improving prognosis.