Incidence of and risk factors for small vulnerable newborns in north India: a secondary analysis of a prospective pregnancy cohort

Abstract

Globally, recent estimates have shown there have been 3·6 million stillbirths and neonatal deaths in 2022, with nearly 60% occurring in low-income and middle-income countries. The Small Vulnerable Newborn Consortium has proposed a framework combining preterm birth (<37 weeks of gestation), small for gestational age (SGA) by INTERGROWTH-21st standard, and low birthweight (<2500 g) under the category small vulnerable newborns (SVN). Reliable data on SVN from sub-Saharan Africa, central Asia, and south Asia are sparse. We aimed to estimate the incidence of SVN and its types, and quantify risk factors, both overall and trimester-specific, from a pregnancy cohort in north India. In the GARBH-Ini (Interdisciplinary Group for Advanced Research on Birth Outcomes-DBT India Initiative) pregnancy cohort, 8000 participants were enrolled with less than 20 weeks' gestation between May 11, 2015, and Aug 8, 2020, at a secondary-care hospital in north India. The cohort was followed up across the antenatal period for a detailed study on preterm birth. We conducted a secondary analysis of cohort data for the outcome of SVN, classified into its types: preterm-SGA, preterm-nonSGA, and term-SGA. We estimated the relative risk and population attributable fraction of candidate risk factors for SVN (modified Poisson regression) and its types (multinomial regression). 7183 (89·9%) of 7990 participants completed the study. Among 6206 newborns included for analysis, the incidence of SVN was 48·4% (35·1% term-SGA newborns [n=2179], 9·7% preterm-nonSGA newborns [n=605], and 3·6% preterm-SGA newborns [n=222]). Compared with term-nonSGA newborns, proportions of stillbirths and neonatal deaths within 72 h of birth among SVN were three times and 2·5 times higher, respectively. Preterm-SGA newborns had the highest incidence of stillbirth (15 [6·8%] of 222) and neonatal deaths (six [4·2%] of 142). Low body-mass index (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) of participants at the start of pregnancy was associated with higher risk for preterm-SGA (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1·61 [95% CI 1·17-2·22]), preterm-nonSGA (1·35 [1·09-1·68]), and term-SGA (1·44 [1·27- 1·64]), with population attributable fraction ranging from 8·7% to 13·8%. Pre-eclampsia (adjusted RR 1·48 [95% CI 1·30-1·71]), short cervical length (1·15 [1·04-1·26]), and bacterial vaginosis (1·13 [0·88-1·45]) were other important antenatal risk factors. In a comprehensive analysis of SVN and its types from north India, we identified risk factors to guide prioritisation of interventions. Complemented with risk-stratification tools, this focused approach will enhance antenatal care, and accelerate achievement of Sustainable Development Goals-namely, to end preventable deaths of newborns and children younger than 5 years by 2030 (target 3·2). Department of Biotechnology, Government of India and Grand Challenges India-Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council, Government of India. For the Hindi translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.