Abstract
As climate change causes global temperatures to rise, heat-related illness, a potentially fatal condition in dogs, will become an ever-greater threat. This study aimed to report the incidence, fatality and canine risk factors of heat-related illness in UK dogs under primary veterinary care in 2016. The VetCompassTM programme collects de-identified electronic patient records from UK veterinary practices for research. From the clinical records of 905,543 dogs under veterinary care in 2016, 395 confirmed heat-related illness events were identified. The estimated 2016 incidence of heat-related illness was 0.04% (95% CI 0.04-0.05%), with an event fatality rate of 14.18% (95% CI 11.08 – 17.96%). Multivariable analysis identified significant risk factors including breed (e.g. Chow Chow, Bulldog and French Bulldog), higher bodyweight relative to the breed/sex mean and being over two years of age. Dogs with a brachycephalic skull shape and dogs weighing over 50 kg were also at greater risk. As we move into an ever-warmer world, veterinary professionals may need to include resistance to heat-related illness amongst their rationales when advising owners on breed selection. Breeding for good respiratory function and maintaining a healthy bodyweight should be considered key welfare priorities for all dogs to limit the risk of heat-related illness.
Highlights
Climate change is listed among the World Health Organisation’s top ten threats to Global Health in 2019, with heat-related illness (HRI) predicted to contribute towards an additional 250,000 human deaths annually by 20301
The incidence risk of HRI in dogs under primary veterinary care during 2016 was 0.04%
There were no HRI events during February, October or December, while 40% (158/395) of the incident cases were in July, corresponding with a heatwave event thought to have been triggered by a strong El Nino[38]
Summary
Climate change is listed among the World Health Organisation’s top ten threats to Global Health in 2019, with heat-related illness (HRI) predicted to contribute towards an additional 250,000 human deaths annually by 20301. Case reviews from primary-care single centre studies in the UK often include insufficient cases for robust statistical analyses and are of limited scientific value For this reason, canine HRI studies to date have tended to rely on referral hospital populations that accumulate caseloads from a broad base of referring practices[10,11,12,13,15,16], but referral caseloads self-select for complex and severe cases, and the diagnoses and outcomes will be heavily influenced by the advanced veterinary equipment and care available in such hospitals[17]. The current study aimed to use the VetCompass database of veterinary health records to (i) estimate the 2016 incidence of HRI in the UK dog population; (ii) identify canine risk factors for HRI and (iii) estimate case-fatality rate for HRI in dogs under primary veterinary care in 2016. It was hypothesised that brachycephalic breeds ( the Bulldog) have higher odds of HRI compared to mesocephalic breeds
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