Incidence and Risk Factors for Brain Metastases in Patients with Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Brain metastases (BM) are a very common metastatic site in lung cancer, but the exact rate of metastasis is still controversial. Risk factors for BM development are also largely lacking, hampering personalized treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the incidence and possible risk factors for BM in lung cancer. A systematic review, based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide-lines, was conducted using PubMed, Medline databases and Cochrane Library databases from inception until February 2023. Two investigators independently searched and selected literature, included in randomized controlled trials and cohort studies. Heterogeneity was assessed using the χ2 test and the I2 statistic. Significant heterogeneity was indicated by P <0.05 in Cochrane Q tests and a ratio greater than 40% in I2 statistics. The review is registered on PROSPERO, number: CRD42022370173. Forty-nine studies were included in the meta-analysis. The results showed that the incidence rate of BM in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23-0.25; I2 = 97.1%). The incidence rate in early NSCLC was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.10-0.13), locally advanced NSCLC was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.29-0.34), and advanced NSCLC was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.35-0.38). Lung adenocarcinoma was more prone to BM in NSCLC (risk ratio [RR] = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.97-6.54; P<0.001). The BM rate of NSCLC with EGFR mutation was also higher (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.14-1.94; P = 0.004). Sex and smoking had no significant effect on the incidence of BM in NSCLC. Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation (PCI) could significantly reduce BM in NSCLC (HR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.23-0.56; P<0.001), but chemotherapy had no obvious effect on decreasing the rate of BM (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.54-1.54; P = 0.73). The incidence rate of BM in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.27-0.30; I2 = 95.9%), and 0.23 (95% CI: 0.20-0.25) in the limited-stage SCLC. Older age (≥65) (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.54-0.92; P = 0.01) were associated with less BM in SCLC. A higher T stage (≥T3) (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.16-2.56; P = 0.007) was a significant risk factor for BM, while sex, smoking dose were not. PCI could also significantly decreased BM in SCLC (HR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.38-0.58; P<0.001). This study is the first meta-analysis of BM incidence rate in lung cancer, and further explores the factors affecting BM, providing some suggestions for clinical decision-making of BM prevention in patients with lung cancer.